Fichier:WRF rita spread2.jpg

English: (Top): WRF model simulation of Hurricane Rita tracks. The model resolution is 30km. The colored field shows the lowest sea-level pressure (SLP) recorded during the last 27 hours of a 54 hour control simulation of Rita using LFO (5 class) microphysics and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme. The superposed black line traces the model hurricane, which strikes Houston. Also shown are tracks of minimum SLP for runs using the Kessler (warm rain) scheme, the WSM3 simple ice scheme (with the Betts-Miller-Jancic convective scheme), the Kessler with reduced rain fallspeed, and WSM3 with enhanced ice fallspeed. (Bottom): The spread of NHC multi-model ensemble forecast at 06 UTC, 22 September. Note a similar ensemble spread was obtained from a single model simply by varying the model microphysics and convective schemes. Image from Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University.